Islam in the new Egypt

There’s a new Egypt now – an Egypt where public opinion actually matters. The country has gone through a tumultuous seven months, and Ramadan provides something of a break from politics, as Muslim communities engage in a month of fasting and spiritual contemplation.

But parliamentary elections are drawing closer – probably within the next few months – and political actors need to consider their strategies. It is clear that divisions already exist within the revolutionary ranks, between those focused on being agitators and those focused on the elections. Ramadan gives these people the time to discuss, debate and, afterward, to regroup.

Public opinion cannot be ignored, like it was under the former regime, even while public opinion does not (yet) rule the country. While political factions are already speaking their minds in the new Egypt, good ideas alone do not make good leaders. Even when they disagree with the public mood, successful politicians must speak to the public’s concerns.

The economy, religion, the military and social media are four of the key issues politicians will need to understand and consider. The Abu Dhabi Gallup Center is now tracking the country’s pivotal transition on a monthly basis – and data from the last few months reveal some intriguing intelligence on those four issues.

Egypt’s political parties have yet to provide fully constructed economic plans – something they are going to need to do, quickly. Gallup’s data show Egyptians are more optimistic about the future after the revolution; they want to know how they can improve from this economic situation, which they know will be bumpy in the short term, to a much better one in the future. It is important to emphasize that, according to public polling, the improvement of the economic situation tops all other concerns. No political force can afford not to address it properly.

The role of religion in the public sphere is another key concern – at least in the media – both nationally and internationally. According to Gallup data, there may be some benefit in reconsidering this focus. Egyptians (Christians and Muslims alike) are generally receptive of other religions; after Lebanese, they are the most likely population in the Middle East and North Africa to welcome a neighbor of another faith. At the same time, most Egyptians (96 percent) feel religion is important, which suggests Egyptians may want religion to play a similar role as it does in European countries with established churches – to provide a moral core in the public sphere.

However, a respect for religion does not necessarily translate into an Islamist vision: the main political Islamist movement, the Muslim Brotherhood, polls at only 15 percent support, and less than one percent identify Iran as Egypt’s political model. Religion need be a fault line only if parties decide to make it one.

Regarding the military, Egyptian media is rife with criticisms of the armed forces on a variety of issues. However, for all of the discontent expressed in different mediums, justified or not, the army enjoys widespread public popularity. Gallup recently found 94 percent of Egyptians express confidence in the military, something any successful political force will have to consider carefully.

Finally, social media, the impact of which has been so widely publicized, is unlikely to be pivotal in the elections. World Bank figures show one-fifth of Egyptians use the Internet overall, let alone access sites such as Twitter or Facebook. Despite claims to the contrary, January 25 itself was not a ”social media revolution;” only eight percent of Egyptians say they used Facebook or Twitter to get their news about the protests, according to Gallup’s data. Social media was not then, nor is it now, the core information medium for the average Egyptian. There are no shortcuts in reaching out to that ”man on the street”, and all parties must be perceived as trying to do just that.

Ramadan can give political forces a time to strategize, but Ramadan will soon end, and elections are nearing. No one can take popular support for granted. Gallup’s data show a majority of Egyptians as political-party agnostics, with no party polling more than one-seventh of the population. Those who react strategically to public opinion stand to benefit greatly in this environment; equally, those who underestimate it stand to lose substantially. The time for planning will not come the day after Ramadan; it came the day Mubarak was forced from power. Those who have not realized that need to catch up, fast.

Dr H.A. Hellyer is Senior Analyst at the Abu Dhabi Gallup Center (UAE)/Gallup Center for Muslim Studies (USA), and Fellow at the Centre for Research in Ethnic Relations at the University of Warwick (UK).

Mubarak Spectacle Captivates the Middle East

Hosni Mubarak’s televised trial transformed Egypt and much of the Middle East into a vast living room on Wednesday, with millions of viewers, from the shops of Amman and Jerusalem to the hovels of impoverished Yemen, mesmerized by the live broadcasts of a once-unthinkable spectacle beamed from a Cairo court.

The sight of Mr. Mubarak, the former Egyptian president, 83 and ailing, confined to a hospital gurney inside a defendant’s cage reserved for common thugs evoked a range of reactions, with some people feeling the thrill of a vengeful comeuppance and others expressing pity for a proud man who once embodied the archtypical Arab autocrat.

Regardless of their politics or religion, many shared a feeling of watching a historical moment, not unlike the day nearly six months ago when Mr. Mubarak was deposed by an 18-day revolution that remade the region’s political dynamics.

“Everybody is watching from all parts of the society, young and old, pro-democracy or pro-government,” said Hussain Abdulla, 23, a human rights activist in Bahrain, where the monarchy has suppressed, sometimes violently, a democracy movement inspired by the events in Egypt. “Of course all the people who are pro-democracy are happy with it and it gives them a push to continue struggling.”

In Jordan, a clothing store salesman in Amman, the capital, who identified himself as Hisham said he like many others in Jordan was glued to the television in the middle of the day, awed by the trial’s opening four hours. “This is the trial that everybody has been looking forward to,” he said.

Many Jordanians — who have been demonstrating every Friday for political reforms in their own country — said they never believed they would witness such a thing. When Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi dictator, was captured, Jordanians saw it as a result of the American invasion and occupation. On the contrary, Mr. Mubarak’s trial, they said, was the Egyptian people’s demand.

In Baghdad, some Iraqis drew parallels between the prosecutions of both former leaders.

“Saddam and Mubarak were criminals in their own way,” said Ahmed Amer, 40. “Let the people see the destiny of these tyrants. They have to put him on trial because he’s destroyed the Egyptian people.”

Salam Ali, 48, a former teacher in Baghdad, said that many of his friends and relatives had watched the opening of Mr. Mubarak’s trial. “It’s fair for them to show it on TV, because he’s been the servant of Israel and America,” he said. “They should execute him.”

In Yemen, the Middle East’s poorest and most unstable country, where a movement to oust the autocratic president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, has been underway for months, protesters camped at an antigovernment demonstration in Sana, the capital, gathered around large screens showing Al Jazeera’s coverage of the trial. Many said they wanted to see Mr. Saleh and his family put on trial as well.

“Yemenis will learn a lot of lessons from the trial of Mubarak,” said Nabil al Hubaishi, who runs a small shop on Sana’s southern outskirts. “They will learn that everyone should be held accountable, even the president.”

Not everyone in Yemen shared that view. Some criticized the trial as a political charade.

“I don’t support it at all,” said Suad Mohamed, a middle-aged homemaker whose husband is in Yemen’s military. “Mubarak was the leader of Egypt. Now he is going to be tried when he is sick. Why?” Egyptians, she said, should be “applying rule of law in their new state. For Mubarak, it’s enough that he was ousted.”

It was unclear how many people were watching the trial in Syria, where security forces have been trying to crush a five-month-old uprising against President Bashar al-Assad. There has been speculation that Mr. Assad used the distraction of the Mubarak trial to order his security forces to seize the restive city of Hama, where dozens of people have been killed since Syrian armored columns first shelled the city on Sunday.

In much of Egypt itself, the trial stopped many daily routines. Cairo residents crowded into cafes or anywhere with a TV. Reuters reported that the city’s infamously clogged traffic had thinned during the broadcast.

The trial also drew a large audience in Israel, where many viewed the images of Mr. Mubarak with a sense of unease. Although he was a dictator, several Israeli commentators said, Mr. Mubarak had also been a reliable ally who upheld Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel for 30 years. It was also noted that the corruption charges against Mr. Mubarak included a natural gas deal that his regime made with Israel.

In the Palestinian territories of the West Bank and Gaza, feelings were more conflicted. Many who watched the live broadcasts from the courtroom, on television and the Internet, expressed satisfaction that Mr. Mubarak was being brought to justice. Some said that it enhanced the credibility of Egypt’s interim military government. Others said they felt that the humiliation of the ailing former president went too far.

There was a measure of pity among some Gazans. Most, however, blamed Mr. Mubarak for having aided Israel in imposing a strict blockade of Gaza over the past few years, by keeping the Rafah crossing on Gaza’s border with Egypt mostly closed.

Abeer Ayyoub, a journalist in Gaza and a researcher for a human rights group, said that Mr. Mubarak deserved to be on trial for what he did to Gaza and to his own people. At the same time, she said, the trial had to be fair, adding, “This trial looks to be a matter of revenge.”

In the Libyan rebel stronghold of Benghazi, the images of the former Egyptian president in court mostly elicited expressions of satisfaction, and envy, from people who have stumbled pursuing their own revolution to oust Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, who has ruled Libya for four decades.

Rafiq el-Fellah, the leader of a rebel militia assigned to find pro-Qaddafi agents and saboteurs in Benghazi, said he had been too busy with work to watch on television but had read the news about Mr. Mubarak: “He was brought into a cage in a bed. I like that very much. When justice is like that, we have a bright future,” Mr. Fellah said.

Mohammed Ali, a gasoline station attendant, said he was impressed with the Egyptian judicial system, a hopeful sign for its democracy.

“It’s not easy for us Arabs to bring a president to court,” he said. “It was kind of stunning We hope it will be an example.”

Cairo protesters taking Ramadan break

Egyptian protesters who have been camped out in Tahrir Square in Cairo said they will suspend their activities until after the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.

The protesters, who since early July have been demonstrating against the Egyptian military’s handling of the transition to democratic reform, made the announcement Sunday and said they would return to the square at the end of Ramadan the holy month.

Ramadan began that night with the sighting of the new moon on the last day of the Islamic month of Shaban. Fasting will begin early Monday morning at dawn and end in the evening at dusk of each day for the next month, culminating in the three-day Id el-Fitr celebration.

All Muslim boys over 13 and all Muslim girls over 12 are required to refrain from eating and drinking, as well as smoking. Muslims are supposed to give more charity during the Ramadan month and take their prayers more seriously.

Also Sunday, Syrian troops stormed the city of Hama, the center of the uprising against President Bashar Assad, reportedly killing at least 95 people, according to the French news agency AFP. The crackdown reportedly is an attempt to silence the protests before the start of Ramadan.

The beginning of Ramadan this year coincides with the start of the Jewish month of Av. The fast of the Ninth of Av commemorates the destruction of both the First Temple and Second Temple in Jerusalem, which both occurred on the same date more than 650 years apart.

Key events in Egypt since the fall of Hosni Mubarak

February 11: After daily mass protests and deaths in clashes with security forces and regime loyalists, Mubarak steps down and leaves Cairo for Sharm el-Sheikh on the Red Sea.

13: The army suspends the constitution and says it will rule Egypt for six months, at which point elections will take place.

March 11: Four top members of the Mubarak regime jailed on charges of ordering security forces to shoot protesters during the revolution, which left 846 people dead and 6,000 injured.

15: The army disbands the former regime’s hated security police.

19: Voters approve the proposed new constitution, with 77.2 per cent voting “yes.”

30: The military regime announces a parliamentary election for September, to be followed by a presidential ballot one or two months later.

April 13: Authorities say Mubarak and his two sons have been detained for 15 days as part of an inquiry into the January-February events. The former president is reported to have suffered heart problems during questioning.

16: The Higher Administrative Court dissolves Mubarak’s National Democratic Party and orders the seizure of its assets.

May 7: Fifteen die and 200 injured as Muslims and Christians clash in Cairo.

17: Suzanne Mubarak, the wife of the ex-president, freed after remitting her assets to the state.

June 6: The Muslim Brotherhood’s new political party is declared legal.

22: The Muslim Brotherhood joins forces with 17 other parties, including liberal and secular groups.

28: A Cairo court orders the dissolution of local councils whose representatives were elected under Mubarak’s regime.

29: 1,036 injured in clashes between protesters and anti-riot police in Cairo’s Tahrir Square.

July 5: A former minister sentenced in absentia to five years in jail and three others acquitted in corruption trials.

7: The public prosecutor refers 25 people to trial for murder during one of the most bloody days of the uprising.

13: The ruling military council seeks to placate protesters by announcing the sacking of hundreds of police officers and a delay of parliamentary elections.

15: Thousands rally across Egypt, capping a week of nationwide sit-ins to demand political change as anger grows with the military rulers.

17: Mubarak in a coma, state television cites his lawyer as saying, a report denied by the health ministry.

19: Mubarak has an abnormal heart rhythm and sometimes falls unconscious, the official MENA news agency reports.

21: A sweeping cabinet reshuffle fails to appease protesters as it retains several ministers they want sacked.

23: Fierce clashes between protesters angry at the military’s handling of the transition from Mubarak’s regime and army loyalists.

25: A Cairo court decides to merge the trials of Mubarak and ex-interior minister Habib al-Adly as former premier Ahmed Nazif is charged with corruption.

27: Mubarak refusing food and has become extremely weak, state media report.

29: Hundreds of thousands of Islamists pack Cairo’s Tahrir Square, in the biggest gathering since Mubarak’s fall.

31: Protesters camped out in Tahrir Square say they will suspend their sit-in during Ramadan, which started on Monday.